Making Decisions in Complex Situations
Let's be honest, uncertainty isn't going anywhere. If anything, it's become the default setting for most of us in leadership roles. Those neat, step-by-step decision trees we learned about? They're pretty much useless when you're dealing with real complexity.
In this episode, I dig into why our go-to methods for making decisions often backfire when things get messy. And trust me, things are always messy these days. Whether you're trying to pivot quickly, working with incomplete data, or just feeling like you're flying blind, I've got some thoughts that might help. I’ll talk about what complexity actually looks like in practice, because it's not just "complicated but harder." It's a whole different beast. Then we'll get into why sticking rigidly to your usual playbook can actually make things worse.
The real meat of this conversation centers around something called emergent strategy. Sounds fancy, but it's actually pretty straightforward. Instead of trying to map out every detail from the start, you take deliberate small steps and let better decisions reveal themselves as you go. It's like feeling your way forward with a flashlight instead of trying to see the whole path at once. I'll share some stories from my time working federal emergency deployments. Those experiences taught me a lot about staying calm when everything's chaos, building confidence without all the answers, and why bringing your team into the process isn't just nice to have, it's essential.
By the time we wrap up, you'll have some concrete tools you can actually use. We'll talk about managing your own stress response, getting clear on what you're really trying to achieve, and why sometimes the best thing you can do is run an experiment instead of making a "final" decision. This isn't about having all the answers, it's about getting comfortable with not having them while still moving forward effectively.
Episode Highlights:
[02:48] We're talking about the important topic of being able to make decisions when the path isn't clear.
[03:23] Leaders frequently have to make crucial decisions under pressure.
[04:22] Traditional decision making practices may not meet today's complicated demands.
[05:05] A complex work environment is characterized by a high degree of unpredictable dynamics.
[06:51] When making decisions in complex situations our brains are processing multiple systems simultaneously.
[07:19] The two main computations that our brains are faced with when making complex decisions according to an MIT article.
[08:24] Cause and effect relationships require expertise and analysis. Leaders need to sift through known unknowns.
[09:16] We often have to rely on good past practices.
[09:57] It's tempting to revert to familiar decision making styles or use entrained thinking as mentioned in a Harvard Business Review article.
[11:04] One of the first things leaders can do is shift their mindset. Be open to changing your mind as new data emerges. Courageously clarified the task or goal.
[12:24] The emergent strategy allows leaders to use incremental decision-making or learning and adapting along the way. This allows the decision to evolve over time.
[13:07] Our traditional process for making decisions is called the deliberate strategy.
[14:01] Incremental decision-making or emergent strategy accepts that you cannot define the final strategy at the beginning. Leaders navigate step-by-step making decisions along the way.
[15:23] Innovative leadership often applies to software and tech companies. It's important to embrace collaboration.
[16:15] I share 10 tips that may be useful for you now based on a Forbes article.
[17:06] Gain clarity. Determine outcomes. Understand the problem. Generate alternatives. Weigh decisions against probability. Prioritize key factors. Use existing structured methods. Weigh the need for more data against time. Provide clarity.
Remain adaptable and open to revisiting decisions.
[19:29] Navigating complexity requires a willingness to be flexible and agile in our leadership approach.
Resources & Links Related to this Episode
● THINK Globally LEAD Strategically: A Christian Guide to Building Effective Leaders
● YOUTH LEADERSHIP: The Untapped Resource
● Leadership Communications: The Top 5 Tips
● How We Make Complex Decisions
● A Leader’s Framework for Decision Making
● How to Make Better Decisions Under Pressure: 5 Key Strategies for Navigating Complexity
● How to Make Strategic Choices in Uncertain Conditions
● Courage to Clarify: Leadership and Decision-Making Amidst Complexity
● 12 Ways To Make Crucial Decisions Under Pressure
● What Are The Key Steps In Making A Complex Business Decision?
